Business Transition: From Value Building to Exit Strategies
West Michigan Housing Summit
Center for Economic Inclusion: Q4 2025 Quarterly Report
Building NexGen Infrastructure: Data Centers in West Michigan
The Company Behind the Products: From Vision to Reality
2026 Economic Forecast

At the Grand Rapids Chamber’s 138th Annual Meeting, members heard a clear and candid economic forecast from Dr. Paul Isely. His word for the year was simple: Slow. Not stalled. Still moving forward. But moving carefully.
He framed the year around four forces shaping the economy:
- Consumers are slowing
- Business is slowing
- Government policy is slowing investment
- AI is slowing employment
View the presentation slides and read the full report here.
Consumers Are Slowing
The pressure on households is growing.
- Many consumers are worn out and carrying more debt
- Nearly 70 percent struggle to maintain a basic savings cushion
- This group is highly price sensitive, especially for everyday purchases
Dr. Isely pointed to the rising use of “buy now, pay later” for groceries as a clear sign of financial stress. He also noted that businesses leaning into affordability and value are outperforming competitors, showing that price matters now more than ever.
Business Is Slowing
The outlook for business, particularly manufacturing, is cautious.
- Manufacturing orders rose after the 2024 election, then dropped sharply after “Liberation Day,” when higher-than-expected tariffs were announced
- Manufacturing jobs are down across West Michigan, while growth has shifted toward education, health care, hospitality, and government roles that often pay less
- Overall business investment is declining. Massive spending in AI and data centers is the major category for spending right now.
Interest Rates and Investment
Interest rates remain a key constraint for both businesses and households.
- The Federal Reserve has cut rates over the past year, but those changes have not fully translated to lower mortgage and borrowing costs
- Global investors are becoming more cautious about placing capital in the U.S., which is keeping long-term rates elevated
- For businesses, this means higher financing costs and delayed investment decisions, especially for large capital projects
- Dr. Isely expects more meaningful rate relief in the second half of the year, as policy shifts place greater emphasis on employment and economic growth
The result is a first half marked by tight financial conditions, followed by a potential opening for refinancing, new projects, and renewed investment momentum later in the year.
Tariffs and Cost Pressure
- Tariffs are thinning corporate margins
- Price-sensitive consumers limit companies’ ability to pass on costs
- Many firms are responding by cutting costs and flattening management structures
AI and Employment
AI is already reshaping how work gets done in West Michigan.
- Manufacturers are using AI to improve supply chains and boost productivity
- Fewer workers are needed to produce the same output
- About 14 percent of jobs are expected to be heavily influenced by AI, though only a small share has been affected so far
- Broader impacts are expected to grow later in the year, especially in finance, insurance, and health care
What Business Leaders Are Seeing
During the panel discussion, Lauren Davis, President of Greater Michigan, shared what she is hearing in the market:
- Manufacturers remain cautious and selective with investments
- Service industries are picking up momentum
- Many companies are staging capital investments for the second half of the year
- Larger firms are moving faster on AI adoption, while smaller businesses are seeking shared learning and collaboration
Looking Ahead
Dr. Isely’s closing message balanced realism with opportunity.
- Employment growth is expected to remain modest, led by small and mid-sized firms
- Younger workers and recent graduates are becoming more entrepreneurial, as traditional entry-level roles become harder to find
- Tariffs may shift from a headwind to a tailwind by mid-year
- Federal policy is moving toward expansionary
- Price increases are likely to continue, even as rates ease
“Winter will feel cold,” said Dr. Isely. But signs of green should appear in the spring. And by summer, the economy may begin to warm.
For West Michigan’s business community: stay informed, stay connected, and look for ways to invest, collaborate, and lead through a slower, but still forward-moving year.
120 Seasons. 30 Years.
Impact that matters
The Power of Mindset in Leadership
Raising the Standard